Homebuilders had nothing to complain about in recent months, as the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) sentiment index was already tied for its best levels on record. Today’s release of the September update surpassed all expectations. While economists were forecasting the headline index to come in at a level of 78, the actual reading was five points higher at 83. Never before has the homebuilder sentiment index topped 80, let alone moved as high as 83. If this sentiment survey was a stock chart, technicians would consider it a textbook breakout.

The internals of this month’s report were also very strong. Both Present and Future sales as well as Traffic all surged to record highs, and on a regional basis, every region except the West increased. The decline in the West likely stems from the fires in California, but even with that decline, all four regions are now comfortably back above their pre-COVID levels.