Healthcare Likely To Benefit From Trump Victory

U.S. equities recovered some composure after tumbling overnight on the decisive victory for president-elect Trump, with the dollar rebounding from lows, gold cooling off, stocks paring over half their initial 5% limit-down pre-market slump and yields whipsawed back to highs. It’s time for the markets to get a bit more granular on his economic, tax and fiscal policies, though what’s promised on the campaign trail may be different from that achieved on Capitol Hill. Trump’s acceptance speech aimed at healing divides allowed the markets to find some temporary equilibrium. The futures market, for the major U.S. markets, are showing losses that are less than the losses experienced the day following the Obama victories in both 2008 and 2012.

The next step for investors is to determine what sectors will outperform, and whether the Federal Reserve will feel comfortable pulling the trigger on higher rates when they meet in December. Trump will get to appoint a new Fed Chair when Yellen’s term is up in 2018. Yellen will not likely last that long as Trump has been critical of her policies. Fed fund futures have increased reducing the chance the Fed will pull the trigger and raise rates when it meets on December 13-14. Trump has said that he wants to take the Fed out of what he considers fiscal policy, which is economic growth, and allow them to concentrate on stability.

The sector that is likely to experience the best relief rally is the healthcare space. Clinton was poised to add regulation to further reduce profits in the sector. The healthcare ETF (XLV) has dropped 13% relative to the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since hitting a high in September 2015. Since Trump is likely to repeal Obamacare (the Affordable Care Act), insurance companies in the healthcare space will benefit from less regulation, and possible rally relative to the S&P 500.

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Graph of Ratio of XLV/SPY

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