The Longer-Term Outlook

Are the Semiconductors creating a base and getting ready for another powerful move higher, or is this a top?  

In my opinion, if rates go higher, then this index will continue to struggle and maybe even break down. If it does break down, then I am negative on the entire market.

The ECRI index is at a very low level.I think this indicates an economic slow down in the months ahead.

A slow down is generally bad for stocks, but then again it might mean rates will stop going up, and stocks will love that, particularly tech stocks. 

The US and German stock markets generally go up and down together, but so far this year they are a bit out of synch. 

The German market is under its 40-week average while the US market is pushing up towards new highs. I am not sure how much to make of this, but it is another of the caution flags for US stocks.

Outlook Summary:

The long-term outlook is cautious. The ECRI index points to an economic slowdown.
The medium-term trend is up as of May-10. Sentiment indicates caution.
The short-term trend is down as of Jul-27.  

The medium-term trend for bond prices is down as of Jul-23 (prices lower, yields higher).

Investing Themes:

Technology

Medical Products

Cyber Security

Payment Processors

Small and Micro Caps 

Gaming 

Strategy:

• Buy large cap stocks and ETFs at the lows of the medium or short-term trends.
• Buy small cap growth stocks on breaks to new highs in the early stages of short-term up trends.
• Stop buying when the short-term trend is at the top of the range.
• Take partial profits when the uptrend starts to struggle at the highs.
• Never invest based on personal politics.