Headline Durable Goods Orders Up 3.4% In January

Core Growth

Here is a similar overlay, this time excluding Defense as well as Transportation (an even more "core" number).

Core ex-Defense

Core Capital Goods

The next two charts take a step back in the durable goods process to show Manufacturers' New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft, a series often referred to as Core Capex. Here is the year-over-year Core Capex.

Core CAPEX YoY

The next chart is an overlay of Core Capital Goods on the larger series showing the percent change of the two since the turn of the century.

Core CAPEX Growth

In theory, the durable goods orders series should be one of the more important indicators of the economy's health. However, its volatility and susceptibility to major revisions suggest caution in taking the data for any particular month too serious.

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