Grains Report - Monday, July 26


General Comments: Winter wheat markets were sharply lower yesterday on a weak export sales report and on hopes for better rains in the 11 to 15 day forecast. The rains might show up but will generally be too little too late to help wheat. The market is also hearing about too wet weather in China and Europe and dry conditions in southern Russia and Kazakhstan. It has been very cold in South America and the winter crops are in trouble in Brazil and Paraguay. The bad weather is coming back as hot and dry conditions are in the forecast for the northern Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies for the next couple of weeks. Even so, Minneapolis was lower as correction trading continued there. White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt as both have been impacted by drought and heat this year. Yield reports have generally been good in Winter Wheat areas but there have been mixed results reported in some Great Plains states. Quality has been generally good. Europe has had too much rain and Russia and Kazakhstan have had too little. Kazakhstan has moved to limit Wheat exports for this year. World prices might have bottomed and should start to move higher, supporting Wheat futures markets in the US.

assorted food in sacks

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Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly isolated showers. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 682, 676, and 658 September, with resistance at 700, 718, and 724 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 645, 638, and 619 September, with resistance at 674, 686, and 692 September. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 871, 859, and 849 September, and resistance is at 909, 944, and 948 September.


General Comments: Rice closed higher Friday and closed very strong for the week on increasing demand ideas and as the weather has been variable for Rice. The weekly export sales report was stronger than expected. The market expects smaller production this year due to reduced planted area and some weather extremes seen through the growing season to date. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated and are still reported to be wetter than desired for strong production and good quality. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas. Texas has also been wet. Export demand has been disappointing and Asian prices are trending lower.

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