Will Daimler Overtake BMW By 2020?

Will Daimler Overtake BMW By 2020?

Can Daimler (DDAIF) overtake BMW (BMW.DE) to become the world’s largest luxury-car maker? In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, CEO Dieter Zetsche seems to think so. Based on a strong showing for Mercedes-Benz in 2014 and what the company is cooking up, it doesn’t sound too far-fetched of an idea to think it can do it by 2020.

Record Year at Mercedes

Driven by strong demand of its new C-class compact cars and S-class sedans, Mercedes had a record year in 2014. In total, it sold 1.74 million units, an 11 percent increase from the previous year. The best news is that it’s increasing its market share in China, which overtook Germany as the company’s second-largest market behind the United States.

Moving forward, Zetsche considers China the decisive market. “Outside of China, we’ve been selling much more than Audi. We’re on par with BMW outside of China. So the more we catch up in China, the faster we will be No. 1.” In 2014, BMW sold 60% of the country’s luxury cars, and Mercedes sold about half as many units as Audi did, but the thing Mercedes has going for it is momentum.

Year of the SUV

On Sunday, Zetsche declared 2015 the “year of the SUV,” announcing the luxury car maker would launch four new sport utility vehicles during the year, including the GLE Coupe. He added that the timing is right and the SUV market is only getting stronger.

Data seems to suggest he’s right about that. Sport utility vehicles aren’t necessarily very popular in most European countries, but they are extremely popular in the United States. In fact, the SUV overtook four-door sedans as the most popular vehicle for individual buyers in the United States. On top of that, they are becoming more popular in countries like China, where they have become a status symbol, and India, where they are used to navigate tough roads. Analysts suggest that China will become the biggest market for SUVs by 2018.

Self-Driving Car

On top of everything Mercedes has planned to get to No. 1, it also has something up its sleeve to stay there. Last week, Zetsche unveiled its plans for a self-driving car at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. But Mercedes is going beyond emphasizing the technology of the self-driving car, with Zetsche saying, “Anyone who focuses solely on the technology has not yet grasped how autonomous driving will change our society. The car is growing beyond its role as a mere means of transport and will ultimately become a mobile living space.”

Unlike Google’s (GOOG) self-driving cars, Mercedes models will feature a steering wheel for those times when a customer wants to take control, and they will be equipped to drive in all sorts of weather conditions, something Google’s prototype is struggling with. And if you think Mercedes is new to the self-driving field, think again. The company has been working on it for almost 30 years, sending a robot-controlled S-class on a 1,600 kilometer trip in 1990.

Based on how Daimler is positioning itself right now and what it has in store, not only should the company be able to surpass BMW by 2020 as the world’s largest luxury auto maker, but it is likely to be able to stay there.

Disclosure: None

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