Why Brexit Must Be Delivered (And Johnson Will Do It)

There is no question Johnson will deliver Brexit. The only question is "How?"

Barring some stunning gaffe or sudden illness or death that takes him out of the race, Boris Johnson will be the UK's next prime minister.

Motion of No Confidence

What about a motion of no confidence as backed by Tory MPs Rory Stewart and Dominic Grieve?

There are only two problems with the idea.

Two Major Problems With Motion of No Confidence Idea

  1. It might succeed
  2. It might fail

1A: If the motion succeeded, but not in time to hold elections, it would actually trigger the hard Brexit it was supposed to stop.

1B: If the motion succeeded in time for elections, Tories and Labour would both be crucified. The Brexit party would likely win, with no chance of negotiation.

1C: Any Tories voting against their party in a motion of no confidence would be outed from the party and would lose in the next election.

2A: Failure would strengthen the hand of the PM.

2B: Any Tories voting against their party in a motion of no confidence would be outed from the party and would lose in the next election.

2C: Any Labour party voting against their party might suffer the same fate.

The no confidence threat is nothing more than idle political posturing.

Leadership Race is Over

The leadership race is effectively over.

Neither Jeremy Hunt nor Michael Gove can defeat Johnson in a Tory Party vote. The party membership believes that, which makes it self-reinforcing.

Stop Boris Silliness

I discussed the setup in Stop Boris Madness In Five Pictures.

Here is slide number 5.

If the party membership believes, and polls show it does, that neither Hunt nor Gove can win an election, it would be illogical to vote for them.

The party believes Dominic Raab could win, but he is 100% committed to leaving with no agreement. The conclusion is the Remainers will not let the final choice become Johnson vs Raab.

Committed Remainers will all rally around Hunt or Gove, then Johnson, in that order.

Expect Brexit

The fact of the matter, as I explained on May 28, is the UK Parliament Cannot Stop a Determined PM From Delivering a No-Deal Brexit.

What Does Boris Really Want?

That is the only remaining question, but it's the key one.

 

My assumption, and it could be wrong, is Johnson really is prepared for no-deal.

Eurointelligence is wavering, yet again. It keeps flip-flopping without being committal, only stating things like "odds of no deal are higher than you might think".

Barring an accident Boris Johnson will be the next UK prime minister. The main foreseeable accident - a House of Commons stitch-up against him - is not happening.

One of the best comments this morning is from Simon Jenkins in the Guardian, who makes the point that the rest of the UK should pray for a Johnson Tory leadership because he is the only one to be able to make a U-turn on Brexit and get away it.

We agree with Jenkins' conclusion that the job of the next PM will be to deliver a Brexit compromise. It is illusory to think that there can be, or will be, substantive renegotiations of the withdrawal treaty - beyond the technical clean-ups due to the Brexit extension itself.

We doubt that Johnson will allow himself to be drawn into this debate during the leadership elections. He is hiding. But, once elected, we expect a very brief period of negotiations on the remaining loose ends on the withdrawal treaty and a completely re-worded political declaration, followed by a longer period of political brinkmanship. No-deal Brexit will remain firmly on the table because a deal will otherwise not be possible.

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