Who Benefitted From The Euro And Who Pays The Piper Now?

Let's take a look at the latest currency imbalances in the EU with a series of questions and answers. This discussion started from reader comments.

Euroscepticism Grows In Germany 

A noteworthy reader-led discussion just took place in response to my previous article Euroscepticism Grows In Germany as 63% Say the EU is Excessively Bureaucratic

One of my readers, PecuniaNonOlet, commented "I thought Germany was the biggest beneficiary of the EU."

That is (or was) an accurate assessment. The response from TexasTime65 was perfect.

"They were the biggest beneficiaries. But now they are potentially the biggest losers because all the other countries owe them a lot of money and have no real way to pay any of it back unless Germany becomes a net importer of goods and services (which is politically a no-go in Germany)," replied TT.

Trade Statements by German Finance Minister “Utter Lunacy”

I have commented on trade aspects many times before.

For example please consider my September 13, 2016 article Michael Pettis Calls Surplus Trade Statements by German Finance Minister “Utter Lunacy”

At that time the six largest deficit countries owe a collective 797.3 billion euros to the four creditor countries, primarily Germany.

Target 2 Imbalances

It's been a while since I reported on Target2 (what countries owe each other).

Spain, Italy, Greece, and the ECB now owe Germany over a trillion euros!

Tiny Luxembourg is a creditor to the tune of 267 billion euros.

How can that be paid back?

It can't. Target2 is one of the fundamental flaws of the Eurozone.

The ECB denies this and so does the pro-EU clan in general, but Target2 imbalances are a measure of capital flight. 

Those imbalances can only be paid back in one of these ways: Default, forgiveness, monetary printing and handouts against Maastricht Treaty rules, or a very prolonged period in which Germany becomes a net importer of goods and services from Spain, Italy, and Greece.

Place your bets, but I rule out the last choice.

Euro What If?

Let's explored another question "What if the UK had moved to the Euro?"

Undoubtedly the UK, like Germany, would have been a huge creditor country.

It would have then been stuck, like Germany is now, with bailing out the EU debtor states.

Moreover, there would have been eventual pressure on the UK for bailouts even if it stayed in the EU but remained on the British pound.

This is yet another excellent reason the UK was wise to Brexit.

Disclaimer: The content on Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including ...

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