What Next For Brexit As Lawmakers Reject May’s Deal (Again)

But while that might be true in the end, if MPs successfully request an Article 50 extension this week, some of the heat would inevitably be temporarily taken out of the situation. In other words, if there were to be 'indicative votes' in the next couple of weeks, it may be too soon to discover whether a particular option can gain a majority.

3. Third time lucky? Don't rule out another meaningful vote on May's deal

That brings the attention back to the current deal on the table. Following two heavy defeats on Mrs. May's deal, it would be difficult for the Prime Minister to have any greater success the third time around.

After all, Brussels has made it pretty clear that Monday's reassurances were as good as it's going to get in terms of concessions. So from a legal perspective, it’s hard to see anything coming about that could change minds in Parliament.

But in the end, it will come down to politics and whether or not the risk of 'losing Brexit' is perceived to have risen. After all, those Conservative MPs that did swing behind the deal on Tuesday predominantly did so out of a fear that Brexit was heading towards a softer outcome, or at risk of being canceled altogether. ERG leader Jacob Rees-Mogg described this as a "phantom risk", but this sentiment may begin to shift over coming days if MPs do back an Article 50 extension and/or push for indicative votes.

If this incentivizes a few more Conservative lawmakers to swing behind the deal, then some commentators have suggested that 20-30 Labour MPs might be prepared to make the switch too. These MPs, who represent staunch Leave-supporting areas and as we mentioned above are concerned about the second referendum risk, may be persuaded if looks likely that May's deal has a fighting chance.

That said, Tuesday's 149-vote loss sets the bar seriously high for Theresa May to turn the tables around. We still think the chances of May's deal passing are relatively low - but we certainly wouldn't rule out a third attempt at a meaningful vote over the next couple of weeks.

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