Weekly Ag Markets Update – Monday, Oct. 12

Wheat:  Winter Wheat markets were higher and made new highs for the move again last week before finding some selling interest later in the week.  USDA released its production estimate and it was close to expectations.  Ending stocks were also close to expectations at 883 million bushels. 

World ending stocks were 321.5 million tons, up from last month and well above the average trade guess.  World demand for US Wheat depends mostly on lower prices for US Wheat to compete with Russia, Europe, and other sellers.  The overseas weather is mixed.  Western Europe is likely to get some good rains in the short term, but southern Russia could stay dry.  Some showers are forecast for Ukraine this week, but the eastern sections of the country should stay dry.  The country and Kazakhstan have both been dry.  These areas are trying to plant the next Winter Wheat crop but the dry weather and the dry soils are keeping farmers out of the fields. 

Less production is likely in Argentina due to drought. About quarter of Argentine growing areas are affected after some beneficial rains in some areas last week.  Western Australia has also been very dry. Conditions are improved in the US after some rains fell in the Great Plains but the western Great Plains remains mostly hot and dry. The Midwest has had good rains.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

Corn:  Corn moved higher and made new highs for the move last week.  USDA said that Corn production was 14.722 billion bushels and ending stocks will be 2.167 billion bushels.  Production is a little below the average trade guess, but ending stocks estimates are above the average trade guess. 

World ending stocks were estimated at 300.5 million tons, above the average trade guess.  Harvest reports from the country suggest that production of a good crop is likely.  Demand is holding strong for exports, but domestic demand was cut back from previous estimates.  The demand has come primarily from China as the state companies bought for the reserve, but that buying appears to be almost complete now.  The harvest has expanded into the Midwest with very good harvest conditions.  The Midwest harvest has been slow as the Corn is slow to dry down.

Weekly Corn Futures

Weekly Oats Futures

Soybeans and Soybean Meal:  Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher for the week in reaction to the USDA production and supply and demand estimates.  The report showed US Soybeans production at 4.268 billion bushels and ending stocks projections at just 290 million bushels.  The combination of reduced production and increased export demand led to the bullish ending stocks estimate.  Domestic demand was left unchanged. 

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Disclaimer: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also ...

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