USD/CAD Forecast June 8-12 – Canadian Dollar Hits Three-Month High After Superb Job Numbers

The Canadian dollar climbed 2.5% last week, as USD/CAD fell to its lowest level since early March. There are three releases in the upcoming week, all of minor significance. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

The Bank of Canada maintained interest rates at 0.25% for a third successive month, as expected. Canada’s trade deficit jumped to C$3.3 billion in April, up from C$ 1.4 billion beforehand. It was the highest deficit recorded since January 2019. The economy added 289.6 thousand jobs in May, after shedding 1.99 million a month earlier.

Analysts had predicted a loss of 500 thousand jobs. The unemployment rate climbed to 13.7%, up from 13% beforehand. Still, this was better than the estimate of 15.0%. Elsewhere, Ivey PMI improved to 39.1, up from 22.8 and beating the forecast of 30.8 points.

In the U.S., ISM Manufacturing PMI improved to 43.1, up from 41.1 beforehand. The PMI has now pointed to contraction for three straight months, as the manufacturing sector has been hit hard by the economic crisis. The services sector also finds itself in contraction territory, as the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 45.4 in May, within expectations.

Nonfarm payrolls shocked with a huge gain of 2.5 million in May, defying the estimate of -7.7 million. In April, the economy shed a staggering 20.5 million jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 13.3%, down from 14.7% beforehand. The forecast stood at 19.4%.

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Housing Starts: Monday, 12:15. Housing starts is an important gauge of the strength of the housing sector. The indicator slipped to 171 thousand in April, its lowest level since January 2016. Will we see a rebound in the May release?
  2. Corporate Profits: Tuesday, 12:30. Canadian corporations enjoyed a strong increase of 3.6% in profits during Q4 of 2019, marking a third consecutive quarterly expansion. We now await the Q1 data.
  3. Capacity Utilization Rate: Friday, 12:30. This quarterly measure of the industry provides the Bank of Canada with insights on the level of slack in the economy. Utilization has been fluctuating slightly above the 80- level in recent releases.
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