USD/CAD Forecast February 24-28 – Little Change For Canadian Dollar After Mixed Numbers

USD/CAD posted slight losses last week. The upcoming week features Canadian GDP. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

In Canada, Manufacturing Production declined for a fourth straight month, falling by 0.7%. Analysts had expected a gain of 0.8%. There was better news on the inflation front. CPI gained 0.3% in January, marking a 3-month high. Retail sales reports were mixed. The headline release plunged to 0.0% in December, down from 0.9% a month earlier. However, core retail sales improved to 0.5%, marking a 6-month high. This beat the forecast of 0.4%.

In the U.S., the Producers Price Index improved to 0.5%, up from 0.1% a month earlier. The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its most recent meeting. The minutes reaffirmed that Fed policymakers are cautiously confident that they can maintain current interest rate levels in 2020. At the same time, the minutes highlighted the significant risk posed by the coronavirus outbreak, stating that “the threat of the coronavirus, in addition to its human toll, had emerged as a new risk to the global growth outlook, which participants agreed warranted close watching.” Policymakers also noted that the outbreak has dampened investor sentiment. This warning from the Fed underscores the threat that coronavirus poses to the global economy,

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Wholesale Sales: Monday, 13:30. The indicator has pointed to a decline in sales in three of the past four releases. The November release fell by 1.2%, much weaker than the estimate of -0.2%. The estimate for December stands at 0.5%.
  2. Corporate Profits: Tuesday, 13:30. Corporate profits is a useful gauge of the strength of the corporate sector. The indicator posted a slight gain of 0.4% in Q3, down sharply from 5.2% in Q2. We now await the fourth-quarter release.
  3. Current Account: Thursday, 13:30. Canada posts current account deficits on a regular basis. In December, the deficit jumped to C$9.9 billion, above the estimate of C$9.5 billion. This was up sharply from the November deficit of C$6.4 billion. Will we see an improvement in the December release?
  4. GDP: Friday, 13:30. Canada’s GDP reports continue to hover around the zero level, pointing to weak economic growth. In November, the economy grew by 0.1%, above the forecast of 0.0%. The December estimate is unchanged at 0.1%.
  5. Raw Materials Price Index: Friday, 13:30. This key inflation indicator accelerated for a second straight month, climbing to 2.8% in December, well above the estimate of 0.7%. We now await the January release.
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