UK: A Mixed Recovery Story
Source: Shutterstock
The vaccine rollout continues to go well
Having endured a long and strict lockdown for all of the first quarter, the UK economy is now gradually reopening. And at face value, things still look fairly promising.
The vaccine rollout has now offered all over-50s, or roughly half the population, a first dose. Unfortunately, supply is expected to decrease in April, owing to a delayed shipment of AstraZeneca vaccines from India. However, reports of stockpiled doses suggest the NHS will still manage to administer a significant number of second doses.
Meanwhile, despite all the noise emanating from the EU over export bans, the improving supply picture for governments on both sides of the channel should hopefully mean the rate of first doses picks up again from May. At this stage, it still seems likely that most adults will have received at least a first dose by the end of the second quarter.
On Covid-19 cases, the picture is still generally good and means the April and May parts of the reopening plan appear on track. We have seen cases rise among school children since the reopening of classrooms earlier in March, though so far, this has not been meteoric, and the number of tests has skyrocketed. At the time of writing, we think there have been roughly 10 million extra rapid tests conducted in England on top of what was already being done, most of which presumably linked to schools.
Despite that, there have been ‘only' around 10,000 extra cases among school-age children across the UK.
Cases are rising among children, but mainly because of greater testing
Source: Gov.uk Coronavirus Dashboard, ING calculations
Note: Lateral flow test data is from England only, while cases are UK-wide
The risk, unsurprisingly, is that case growth picks up considerably in the intervening period between reopening and wide-scale vaccination. Until larger chunks of the under-50 population is partially vaccinated, there’s still clearly a risk of transmission (and ultimately, mutations), even if the mortality/hospitalisation risk has been considerably reduced.
Comments
Bert Colijn is a Senior Eurozone Economist at ING. He joined the firm in July 2015 and covers the global economy with a specific focus on the Eurozone. Prior to this, he worked at The Conference Board, a global think-tank, in Brussels focusing mostly on long-term economic growth. He holds an undergraduate and graduate degree in International Economics and Business from the University of Groningen.
Carlo is an Economist at ING and has been with the firm since January 2016. He is mainly interested in the future of banking, blockchain and virtual currencies. He began his career at Barings Asset Management and holds an MSc in Economics. 
Inga Fechner is an economist at ING in Germany, covering international economic developments with a specific focus on Austria. She joined the company in 2014 after graduating in Economics from the University of Münster, with studies abroad in Japan and Italy.
Marieke Blom is the Chief Economist at ING in the Netherlands.
Maurice van Sante is a Senior Economist covering the construction and real estate sectors. He joined ING in 1998 and till 2006 he was a treasury advisor and cash manager consultant. Maurice studied Economics at the Erasmus University in Rotterdam.
Peter Vanden Houte is Chief Economist Belgium, Eurozone and has been working with ING in various research functions for the last 20 years. He is also chairman of the “economic commission” at the Belgian Employers Federation.
Robert Carnell is Chief Economist and Head of Research, Asia-Pacific, based in Singapore. For the previous 13 years, he was Chief International Economist in London and has also worked for Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Schroder Investment Management, and the UK Government Economic Service in a career spanning 24 years. Robert has a Masters degree in Economics from McMaster University, Canada, and a first-class honours degree from Salford University.
_768_606_70_c1.jpg)
