Two Trades To Watch: EUR/USD, Barclays

EURUSD looks to yearly low, German retail sales tumble. Barclays falls as CEO unexpectedly steps down.

EUR/USD under pressure, German retail sales tank

EUR/USD experienced its steepest daily decline in 4.5 month on Friday despite Eurozone GDP rising 2.2% and returning to pre-pandemic levels and despite CPI inflation surging to 4.1% a fresh 13 year high. However, the ECB meeting had passed, and the ECB are sticking with the verse that elevated inflation is transitory (FXE, UUP).

Meanwhile, US Dollar jumped after US core PCE inflation reached a 30 year high of 3.6% prompting bets of a move to tighten monetary policy by the Fed.

Today German retail sales unexpectedly tumbled 2.5% MoM in September down from a 1.1% rise in August. Expectations had been for a 0.6% increase.

Looking ahead US ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to show a slight move lower to 60.5 in October, down from 61.1 in September.

Where next for EUR/USD?

EUR/USD is edging towards yearly lows. It trades below its descending trendline dating back to early June and below its 20 & 50 sma.

Whilst the RSI remains in bearish territory and the failure to break above the 50 sma and falling trendline resistance boosts the bear’s case.

Sellers would need to break through 1.5525 the yearly low in order to target 1.15 round number.

Any recovery would need to retake 1.1580 a level which capped losses across most of last week, in order

EURUSD chart

Barclays Bank falls after CEO unexpectedly steps down

Jes Staley Barclays chief executive since 2015 has stepped down following the preliminary conclusions of a FCA and PRA probe into his historical links to pedophile Mr Epstein.

Back in May 2020 Mr Staley had been unanimously recommended for re—election at the AGM after the board decided that he had been sufficiently transparent in an account which he had offered on his 15 year business relationship with Epstein provide in February of the same year.

The board and Mr Staley agreed that he will step down as he intends to contest the charges.

Barclays has announced that C.S Venkatakrishnan, head of global market has already assumed the role of CEO. 

Where next for Barclays share price?

Barclays (BCS) share price has fallen on the open, dropping below the rising trend dating back to late September. The MACD also appears to be forming a bearish crossover, keeping the seller’s hopeful.

Immediate support sits at 194p today’s low, with a breakthrough there opening the door to 190p and exposing the 50 sma at 189p. Below here the sellers could gain traction.

Any recovery would need to retake the rising trendline at 198p in order to re-target 204p the recent high.

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