Photo by Dmitry Demidko on Unsplash

Today, I will begin with my monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of my forecast is based upon 20 years' worth of research of Forex prices, which shows that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:

• Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past six months.
• Trading against very strong weekly counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week.
• Carry trade: Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates.

Let's take a look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies.

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Monthly Forecast for September 2023

For the month of September, I forecasted that the USD/JPY currency pair would increase in value. The result so far is as follows:

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Weekly Forecast for Sunday, Sept. 24, 2023

This week, I forecast that the GBP/NZD currency cross will rise in value, as it made such a large counter-trend price movement during the past week.

Directional volatility in the Forex market was slightly on the high last week, with 41% of the most important currency pairs fluctuating over the week by more than 1%. Volatility is likely to be lower over the coming trading period, as there are fewer high-impact data releases scheduled than there were last week.

Last week was dominated by relative strength in the New Zealand dollar, and relative weakness was seen in the British pound.

Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs

I often teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that can be monitored on the more popular currency pairs this week.

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