Trading Support And Resistance - Sunday, June 20

10 and 20 us dollar bill

This week we will begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 18 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:

Let us look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:

Currency Price Changes and Interest Rates

Monthly Forecast June 2021

For the month of June, we forecast that the USD/CAD currency pair would fall in value, and the CAD/JPY currency cross would rise in value. The performance of the forecast so far is shown below:

Monthly Forecast June 2021

Weekly Forecast June 20

Last week, we made no weekly forecast, as there were no large counter-trend price movements in any important currency pairs or crosses.

This week, although we have seen strong counter-trend movements, we believe the strong momentum which developed towards the end of last week is quite likely to continue, so we do not want to forecast a reversal. Generally, we are seeing strong risk-off flow into the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen, and this seems likely to continue.

The Forex market showed a major increase in its level of volatility last week, as I forecast, with 56% of the important currency pairs and crosses again moving by more than 1% in value. Volatility is likely to fall somewhat or remain the same over the coming week.

Last week was dominated by great relative strength in the U.S. dollar, and relative weakness in the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD) and precious metals (gold and silver). The size and speed of this price movement is a strong change from the recent market environment which suggests that now is a great time to try to get involved in a trade.

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Disclosure: You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage ...

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