This Hasn’t Happened Since 2009: Ruble, Crude Edition

If there’s anything the ruble (which is more “beleaguered” than Jeff Sessions after a Trump Twitter tirade) did not need after plunging 9% this week following fresh U.S. sanctions it was, well, a Trump Twitter tirade.

But when it rains it fucking pours and the Kremlin is quickly discovering that unless this is all part of some elaborate ruse, their useful idiot in Washington has gone from plant to useless to outright problematic. Here he is telling Russia to “get ready” for some “nice new” U.S. missiles:

As you can see, the time stamp on that is 6:57 a.m. ET and it immediately hit the ruble:


And guess what else jumped on Trump’s war tweet? Why, crude, of course:


This is the “Bolton premium” getting priced back in and you’ve got to think Saudi Arabia doesn’t mind the fact that these apparently imminent airstrikes will not only piss Tehran off, but also drive crude higher.

The ruble for Russia here is that the ruble and crude have become completely disconnected – in other words, higher oil ain’t gonna help this time. As Bloomberg’s Luke Kawa notes on Wednesday morning, “we’re on track for the ruble’s biggest one week underperformance of Brent since 2009”:


Disclosure: None of what I write here is to be construed as advice to buy or sell any kind of asset. It is merely my personal and not my professional opinion. Any asset can go to zero.

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