The Commodities Rally Hinges On A Euro Breakout

(Click on image to enlarge)

Over the past year, there has been a lot of buzz about rising equities, the surge in Bitcoin, the strength of gold, and the comeback in commodities like crude oil and corn.

But what about the Euro?

It’s just as important and it is a big reason why several of the assets above are rising.

As many of you know, the currency markets have a huge effect on equities and commodities. When the Euro is strong, it’s nearly a foregone conclusion that the US Dollar is weak. And this provides a tailwind to commodities… and a bid to equities. And that has been a reality in the markets for much of the past year.

So will this theme continue into 2021 and beyond?

Depends on how the Euro performs.

Let’s look at the chart. Here we have a long-term “monthly” chart of the Euro. As you can see, the price has pivoted as support or resistance several times off line (1). And all the while, the Euro has traded in a falling channel marked by each (2).

Recent Euro strength has the currency testing BOTH the upper channel boundary and this all-important pivot line at the same time at (3).

So if commodities have the “legs” for another move higher, the Euro needs to breakout.

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