Terrifying Charts Show China's Economy Remains Completely Paralyzed

In our ongoing attempts to glean some objective insight into what is actually happening "on the ground" in the notoriously opaque China, whose economy has been hammered by the Coronavirus epidemic, last week we showed several "alternative" economic indicators such as real-time measurements of air pollution (a proxy for industrial output), daily coal consumption (a proxy for electricity usage and manufacturing) and traffic congestion levels (a proxy for commerce and mobility), before concluding that China's economy appears to have ground to a halt. These observations were subsequently reaffirmed when we showed that steel demand, property sales, and passenger traffic had all failed to rebound from the "dead zone" hit during China's Lunar New Year hibernation.

Meanwhile, as every investor scrambles for clues to find the upward inflection point in China's economic output which would at least partially validated the unbridled euphoria in the stock - and, ironically, the bond market - we have some unpleasant news: more than one week after our initial report on "alternative" high-frequency (read daily) indicators in China's economy, any tangible improvement in China's economy has yet to be observed.

We start with some base commodity market observations courtesy of Goldman Sachs, which when looking at preliminary weekly demand data, finds that:

  • Finished product production -7.4% w/w
  • Mill stocks +18% w/w
  • Trader stocks -19% w/w

According to Goldman's Adam Gillard, the above implies full country apparent demand is down a massive -66% y/y.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Picking up where Goldman (and we) left off, UBS writes that while there are official announcements for each province or city to end the extended Chinese New Year (CNY) holidays, "the actual work resumption faces many constraints and is hard to track." And so, piggybacking on what Capital Economics did previously, UBS constructed a China Daily Activity Tracker to assess real-time development, which covers many of the same indicators we have already noted previously including:

1 2 3
View single page >> |

Disclaimer: Copyright ©2009-2020 ZeroHedge.com/ABC Media, LTD; All Rights Reserved. Zero Hedge is intended for Mature Audiences. Familiarize yourself with our legal and use policies every ...

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience. Users' ratings are only visible to themselves.


Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.