E Tariff Man Trump Fooled Wall Street From The Start

But we know stocks are often priced on growth potential. And investment is made based upon potential. The potential of retaining 1.4 billion customers is quite different than pricing a company based on it being hated by 1.4 billion customers.

It isn't measured by current trade numbers and deficits.

(Click on image to enlarge)

 

Monthly exports to China

What we can see by the chart is that China has made a good faith effort to increase imports from the USA. But that has started to slow as tariff man started to attack China. It appears that, opposite what Peter Navarro has said, China has begun to allow companies to compete in China. But that door is closing! 

We have to understand that per capita trade exchange with China is in the favor of the USA. The latest figures I could find show that the US is 46th in actual per capita exports and China is only 74th! China exports less than $2000 per person and the US exports nearly $5000 per person. How can China be expected to trade evenly across the board with the USA when we have less than a quarter of the population of China and China has a much larger manufacturing base?  China should send more goods to the USA, in principle, because China is a much larger nation.

As far as intellectual property is concerned, did Trump want to weaken China as a sovereign nation by forcing his will onto its legal system? Would that interference in the legal system result in China being unable to be competitive in areas that would bring a large nation into greater prosperity? That would likely be immoral.

It is not illegal for a nation to demand a sharing of technology in order to do business with that nation. Codifying it into illegal status would be a mistake. China had to roll back that earlier agreement. Was it trying to work a compromise? Trump surely was not satisfied with compromise because he has ambitions as tariff man. As Frederick Abbott says:

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Disclosure: I have no financial interest in any companies or industries mentioned. I am not an investment counselor nor am I an attorney so my views are not to be considered investment ...

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Gary Anderson 9 months ago Author's comment

Update 12: China believes that even if the skinny deal is signed there will not likely be a permanent and lasting trade deal with the USA. Our isolationism will crush us one day. We are an unreliable trading partner. Our supply chain contributions could be ruined permanently. Stupid Wall Street for ever believing Trump.

Gary Anderson 11 months ago Author's comment

Update 11: It appears that a temporary solution to the tariff war is now off the table. Hope for a deal is decreasing daily.

Gary Anderson 11 months ago Author's comment

Update 10. Trump has said Huawei is off the table for October trade discussions with China. But Andy Purdy who is chief security officer for Huawei has said there will be no trade deal without Huawei being included in the discussions. Trump has conned Wall Street once again!

Frank Underwood 11 months ago Member's comment

Re: Trump - I don't know that I'd call it a con. I think it's all just posturing and negotiation tactics on both sides.

Gary Anderson 11 months ago Author's comment

A negotiating tactic to leave Huawei out of the talks in October? I think that is a naive conclusion. I hope I am proven wrong, but I don't see any real proof that I am wrong. Trump is like the movie groundhog day, but with never success ate the end.

Gary Anderson 1 year ago Author's comment

Update 9: Trump will put 10 percent tariffs on the remaining 300 billion. #Itoldyouso

Gary Anderson 1 year ago Author's comment

Update 8: Tariff Man keeps fooling Wall Street. While Trump backed off Huawai, he now is going after Europe. The Chineses have to be rolling on the ground in stitches while they are welcoming Europe with open arms. Why Trump would fight for Boeing while that company employed temps to formulate the Max software that kills people makes absolutely no sense. Tariff Man is addicted and the Democrats have also rejected free trade. We are a bunch of losers for sure.

Bill Johnson 1 year ago Member's comment

Good updates. But why not throw them all together and create a Part 2 to this article, as an article in it's own right?

George Lipton 11 months ago Member's comment

Good though Bill, I second that idea.

You'd get more pageviews that way. Doesn't earn you more money or equity or whatever?

Gary Anderson 11 months ago Author's comment

I have been sick. So I appreciate your comments, but things change so fast around Trump tariffs that I wanted to keep this article center stage if I could. It shows the graph where China was beginning to ramp up purchases of American goods until Trump policy changed the Chinese perspective. I am feeling better, but I have to be careful going forward. Thanks again, George and Bill!

Gary Anderson 1 year ago Author's comment

Update 7: Trump is buying time, wanting to give the appearance of a truce with China. However, that truce is political, as he hopes for reelection. Once Trump is reelected, will he revert back to Tariff Man? There will be no check on him doing just that. Bannon says Trump will never back down on this tariff war. Is he, after the G20 truce, still right? Will the stock market and world prosperity be in danger after the election? Is prosperity already damaged no matter what he does going forwatd?

Gary Anderson 1 year ago Author's comment

Update 6: Trump #blinks for the good of the nation. He put the nation before #tariff mongering ideology, for now at least. #G20 may be a win for America after all.

Gary Anderson 1 year ago Author's comment

Update 5: Wilbur Ross said a deal will be made but then comments that all US demands will have to be met. The man is a delusional market manipulator.

Gary Anderson 1 year ago Author's comment

Update 4: US irrational sanctions on Huawei are by presidential decree. This will slow Huawei but make the giant telecom even more independent. The US wants to separate this cowardly act from the broader trade war. That may not come to pass. The world economy and the USA stock market are not immune.

Norman Mogil 1 year ago Contributor's comment

It is starting dawn on many that these tariffs are here for the long haul. Yet govts have not introduced measures to ease the adjustment e.g. how are farmers to be compensated for permanent market loss. The US govt does not understand the need for an adjustment mechanism has to go hand in hand with a permanent shift in trade patterns,

Anthony Varrell 1 year ago Member's comment

Yes, I admit I thought the trade war was just a tactic to get China to the bargaining table. But this won't end soon.

Gary Anderson 1 year ago Author's comment

We are close to the brink.

Gary Anderson 1 year ago Author's comment

Update 3: Citizen boycotts are highly effective in China. A people's war against the USA is exactly that sort of boycott. It was called for by the official Chinese media in a primetime announcement last night. This will be worse than any official tariffs that China imposes. Wall Street is asleep. #CNBC #tariffs

Leslie Miriam 1 year ago Member's comment

Wasn't a fan of the trade war. China is a gorwing power and we'd be better to have them as an ally. But lately I've been reading about how China is forcing it's own people into internment camps. Now I don't mind if we crush their economy a bit!

Gary Anderson 1 year ago Author's comment

This isn't a game for the American consumer, Leslie. 70 percent of shoes sold in the US and one third of the clothing sold in the USA comes from China! Serious costs await the American consumer. Add to this the Chinese don't want a tariff solution, and Trump wants to make up ground whatever that means. The only way around this is for Trump to keep US companies from giving up tech transfers while not forcing China to change its laws. Tech transfer is not illegal. Tech from other nations will gain an advantage in doing business in China over constrained US companies. But if that is what Trump wants, at least it would allow for a deal and circumvents the impasse about tech transfers.

David Reynolds 11 months ago Member's comment

While I agree, to play devil's advocate... there are many countries in the world. There is no reason why we can't shift some of our products and imports to other countries.