Soft Commodities Speculators Boost Soybean Meal Bullish Bets To 236-Week High

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

 

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Corn

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The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (23,398 contracts) with Corn (13,855 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,358 contracts), Sugar (9,927 contracts) with Cocoa (5,353 contracts), Coffee (5,172 contracts) and Live Cattle (3,552 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Oil (-10,669 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-5,281 contracts), Cotton (-4,281 contracts) and Wheat (-21 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued gain in the Soybean Meal speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Soybean Meal rose this week for a third consecutive week and for the seventh time out of the past ten weeks. Speculators bets have now pushed the overall net position standing for Soybean Meal (currently at +133,532 contracts) to the highest level in the past two-hundred and thirty-six weeks, dating back to June 5th of 2018.

Soybean Meal futures prices dipped this week despite the continued strong sentiment. The Soybean Meal futures price had previously gained for three straight weeks and hit the highest price level since March above the 470.0 threshold. The futures price closed out the week right around the 460.0 support/resistance area.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-13-2022
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,450,482 4 229,559 5 -247,747 97 18,188 29
Corn 1,205,259 0 212,230 57 -173,223 47 -39,007 21
Natural Gas 996,823 9 -153,681 32 129,960 72 23,721 36
Sugar 899,777 38 193,051 60 -228,593 38 35,542 52
Soybeans 638,744 14 113,059 46 -82,011 64 -31,048 19
Gold 437,040 4 125,649 24 -138,529 76 12,880 12
Wheat 335,354 21 -39,918 0 42,894 100 -2,976 95
Heating Oil 270,751 24 17,308 68 -32,771 36 15,463 52
Coffee 198,702 11 -9,470 8 8,451 93 1,019 14
Copper 162,191 11 2,556 38 -6,559 62 4,003 48
Brent 148,097 10 -28,567 62 25,351 36 3,216 53
Silver 125,555 4 22,819 39 -35,806 61 12,987 33
Platinum 72,416 43 28,445 47 -32,624 55 4,179 24
Palladium 7,494 8 -883 20 854 77 29 43

 


Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Sugar

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COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Sugar (60 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (57 percent), Live Cattle (53 percent) and Soybeans (46 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent), Coffee (8 percent) and Cotton (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score this week was Lean Hogs (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (57.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (55.4 percent)
Sugar (60.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (56.9 percent)
Coffee (7.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (1.8 percent)
Soybeans (45.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (38.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (41.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (48.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (93.8 percent)
Live Cattle (53.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (48.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (37.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (43.6 percent)
Cotton (18.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (21.5 percent)
Cocoa (39.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (34.6 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

 

Sugar & Cocoa top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (43 percent) and Cocoa (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (9 percent) and Soybean Meal (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-24 percent), Corn (-16 percent) and Lean Hogs (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-16.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-16.8 percent)
Sugar (42.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (24.5 percent)
Coffee (-13.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-29.9 percent)
Soybeans (8.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (10.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-28.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-18.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (7.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (3.3 percent)
Live Cattle (-5.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-11.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (-14.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-1.8 percent)
Cotton (-1.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.6 percent)
Cocoa (31.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (19.3 percent)
Wheat (-23.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-26.4 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

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CORN Futures COT Chart

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 212,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,855 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 198,375 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.2 47.3 10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.6 61.7 13.4
– Net Position: 212,230 -173,223 -39,007
– Gross Longs: 316,184 570,199 122,422
– Gross Shorts: 103,954 743,422 161,429
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.1 47.2 21.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -16.4 16.2 8.9

 


SUGAR Futures:

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SUGAR Futures COT Chart

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 193,051 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 183,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.0 44.6 10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.6 70.0 6.2
– Net Position: 193,051 -228,593 35,542
– Gross Longs: 288,052 401,488 91,410
– Gross Shorts: 95,001 630,081 55,868
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.3 37.6 51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 42.6 -39.7 17.4

 


COFFEE Futures:

(Click on image to enlarge)

COFFEE Futures COT Chart

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -9,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.5 53.0 4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.2 48.7 4.0
– Net Position: -9,470 8,451 1,019
– Gross Longs: 44,628 105,240 8,917
– Gross Shorts: 54,098 96,789 7,898
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.7 93.1 13.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.4 13.9 -13.4

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

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SOYBEANS Futures COT Chart

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 113,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 23,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,661 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.0 50.7 7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.3 63.6 12.4
– Net Position: 113,059 -82,011 -31,048
– Gross Longs: 172,330 324,126 48,054
– Gross Shorts: 59,271 406,137 79,102
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.9 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.9 64.1 18.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.5 -7.8 -4.1

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

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SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT Chart

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 55,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,669 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.2 49.5 8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.7 66.2 5.5
– Net Position: 55,642 -68,529 12,887
– Gross Longs: 95,349 203,433 35,470
– Gross Shorts: 39,707 271,962 22,583
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.2 57.1 61.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.5 26.7 -4.1

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

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SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT Chart

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 133,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,358 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 122,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.8 36.2 12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.8 75.0 7.5
– Net Position: 133,532 -152,141 18,609
– Gross Longs: 148,357 142,149 47,862
– Gross Shorts: 14,825 294,290 29,253
– Long to Short Ratio: 10.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 3.8 29.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -3.6 -37.0

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

(Click on image to enlarge)

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT Chart

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 58,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,263 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.7 32.9 11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.8 51.5 12.2
– Net Position: 58,815 -55,162 -3,653
– Gross Longs: 114,479 97,378 32,476
– Gross Shorts: 55,664 152,540 36,129
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.1 37.7 78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.8 7.4 -2.8

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

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LEAN HOGS Futures COT Chart

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 33,627 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.5 36.6 7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.5 49.0 13.1
– Net Position: 33,627 -23,073 -10,554
– Gross Longs: 69,910 68,312 13,877
– Gross Shorts: 36,283 91,385 24,431
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.2 69.2 44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.4 13.2 6.9

 


COTTON Futures:

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COTTON Futures COT Chart

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 14,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.3 49.5 6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.0 57.0 5.9
– Net Position: 14,439 -14,822 383
– Gross Longs: 62,069 98,286 12,021
– Gross Shorts: 47,630 113,108 11,638
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 18.3 82.6 12.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.3 0.9 2.3

 


COCOA Futures:

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COCOA Futures COT Chart

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 23,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,964 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.9 46.5 4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.1 56.5 3.0
– Net Position: 23,317 -26,669 3,352
– Gross Longs: 84,900 123,825 11,260
– Gross Shorts: 61,583 150,494 7,908
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.9 61.1 30.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 31.2 -32.2 9.2

 


WHEAT Futures:

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WHEAT Futures COT Chart

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -39,918 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,897 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.1 40.9 9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.0 28.2 10.6
– Net Position: -39,918 42,894 -2,976
– Gross Longs: 94,335 137,316 32,455
– Gross Shorts: 134,253 94,422 35,431
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 95.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.7 24.0 19.5

 


Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


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