Slowing Virus Lifts Stocks

Asian markers traded on the front foot overnight and European markets jump higher on the open, whilst safe havens come under pressure as the market mood turns positive.

Both Italy and Spain have reported a substantial slowdown in the number of new coronavirus cases and deaths. France and Germany’s curves are also showing signs of flattening. Italy is even considering how to come out of lock down. This is a significant change in situation to where we were just two weeks ago.

The number of cases in Germany has reached 95,391 according to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) with a total of 1,434 deaths. The number of new cases rose by 3,677 compared with Sunday’s 5936. 

Whilst there is now light at the end of the coronavirus tunnel, the data showing the economic impact of the restrictive measures taken to protect the public is still only at its initial stages. The full extent of the blow will take some time to seep through the economy. 

German Factory Orders Beat Expectations

German factory orders fell by less than forecast also supporting risk sentiment. Factory orders dropped -1.4% month on month in February, versus the -1.9% forecast and the 5.5% print a month earlier. The data will get worse over the coming months before it gets better, but today’s reading is a sign of relief for investors, particularly as the coronavirus outbreak shows signs of easing.

Levels to watch

The DAX has jumped 4% on the open, at 9920. It trades above its 50 and 100 sma on the 4 hour chart, a positive sign. Although it remains with the horizontal channel that it has traded within since 25th March. A break above the upper bound of 10144 is needed for more bulls to jump in. Meanwhile a move below the lower bound of 9328 is needed for another step lower.

Immediate resistance can be seen at 10144, prior to 10645 (200 sma) and 10766 (high 11th March).
On the flip side, support can be seen at 9700 (100 sma) prior to 9328 (channel’s lower bound).

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