Sensex Turns Weak As Indo-Pak Tensions Rise; Vedanta & Tata Motors Top Losers
Stock markets in India are presently witnessing selling pressure on escalating Indo-Pak tensions. The BSE Sensex is trading lower by 209 points and the NSE Nifty is trading lower by 79 points. Meanwhile, both the BSE Mid Cap index and the BSE Small Cap index are trading down by 0.2%.
Among the sectoral indices, metal stocks and telecom stocks are witnessing maximum selling pressure.
In the news from the economy. With lower revenue collections, the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) in its latest data showed that the central government's fiscal deficit has widened and touched 121.5% of the full-year revised target of Rs 6.34 trillion at the end of January.
The fiscal deficit, or the gap between the government's expenditure and revenue, stood at Rs 7.7 trillion during April-January of the current financial year ending March. At the end of January 2018, the deficit was 113.7% of the Revised Estimate (RE).
As per the CGA data, the revenue receipts of the government totaled Rs 11.81 trillion or 68.3% of RE till January in 2018-19, compared with 72.8% during the same period last fiscal.
The government expects to mop up revenue of Rs 17.29 trillion during the current fiscal, from Rs 17.25 trillion budgeted originally.
Tax revenue was 68.7% of RE, compared with 76.5% in the comparable period of the previous year.
On the expenditure front, the data showed that the total expenditure of the government at January-end was Rs 20.01 trillion or 81.5% of RE. The total expenditure for the current fiscal has been raised to Rs 24.57 trillion in the RE, from the budgeted Rs 24.42 trillion.
The government had budgeted to cut the fiscal deficit to 3.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or Rs 6.24 trillion in 2018-19, from 3.53% in the previous financial year.
Gross Fiscal Deficit Over the Years
However, the fiscal deficit was revised upwards marginally to 3.4% of GDP or over Rs 6.34 trillion in the Interim Budget 2019-20, on account of an additional outlay of Rs 200 billion for funding income scheme for small farmers.
In another development, overseas flows into domestic equities this month were the highest in 12 months.
So far this month, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have bought stocks worth US$1.9 billion, the highest since March 2018 when they had pumped in over US$2 billion. Since then, foreign flows had worsened.
FPIs have been taken out money in seven out of 12 months. The reversal in overseas flows this month will boost investor sentiment, which has been hit due to escalation in cross-border tensions between India and Pakistan.
The latest flow tally needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. The market has seen single-day FPI investment of US$1.7 billion, the highest in 4 years. This was on account of share sale by Dutch bank ING Group in Kotak Mahindra Bank.
As per the reports, high inflow tallies this month isn't necessarily due to change in sentiment. FPIs continue to remain cautious ahead of elections.
Indian equities have had a tough time in the past one year. With elections around the corner, volatility in the markets has been on a constant rise.
Till date in FY18-19, foreign investors have pulled out around Rs 515 billion from the Indian equity market.
In the past, such panic would have meant the domestic investor would have followed suit.
That hasn't happened this time.
Domestic investors have shown surprising resiliency to the market's volatility.
The month-wise SIP in FY18-19 has seen a constant rise.
Also, close to 1 million new SIP accounts have been added during FY18-19 according to AMFI.
The days of knee-jerk panic withdrawals by individual investors are slowly but surely reducing. If they ride out this volatility they will see the benefit of the cycle turning in their favor.
That will mark a significant change in the mindset of the retail investor for the long term.
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