Polar Vortex And BISIT

Today we learn new vocabulary. What has hit North America is a stray but very big "polar vortex." Said vortex exited its normal persistent cyclonic track around the North Pole, moving south into densely inhabited lands, hitting flat open sites (like airports) the most. That explains the weather.

The "fragile 5" or BISIT is defined in today's Neue Zuercher Zeitung, emerging market countries with high political risk: Brazil, India, South Africa, Indonesia, and Turkey. Mysteriously, Thailand, Hungary, and Ukraine are left out of the anagram. My idea is a 7-country list called BISTUITH. (I tried for to BISTHCUIT but I don't think any of the C emerging countries with accessible markets have high political risks: China, Colombia, Chile. Côte d'Ivoire would fill the hole but who invests in Abidjan?)

More global news follows from China, Brazil, Portugal, Britain, The Netherlands, India, Switzerland, Belgium, and Mexico. I take on the Swiss and the Belgians below.

*Bloomberg reports that Liberty Global is close to tying up its takeover of Dutch broadband provider Ziggo in a friendly deal. LBTYA/K already owns c30% of Ziggo. What has still to be decided is the price and what role Ziggo CEO Rene Obermann will play once John Malone has snatched the firm. The Liberty Global shares we own are ADRs of a UK firm.

*BISTUITH investing is alive and well with the Franklin Templeton funds buying heavily in Ukraine and Thailand according to articles in the business press over the weekend. Our closed-end Templeton Emerging Income Fund (TEI) is a big player in search of hidden (or invisible) opportunities in the bond markets.

*I think anagram investing is dangerous, after the original BRIC theme worked out. NZZ may chatter all they want about which emerging markets to invest in based on what analysts tell them.

But what with the politicization of the Swiss National Bank and the sacking of its chief last year, Berne wound up holding too much gold in the national coffers. The result has been a $10 bn paper loss on its gold in 2013. So Swiss analysts are rooting for a rise in the gold price this year out of Eidgenossische patriotism, writing to the tune of the Wilhelm Tell Overture.

*Via Portugal Telecom we remain invested in Brazil and are gaining thanks to the planned regulatory reshuffling of telephone assets because of the failure of Telecom Italia, owner of Brazil's Tim Participaçðes (TIM). Because Telefonica (TEF) bought Vivo from PT, it is barred from taking over TIM because it would control too much of the Brazilian market. PT is the controlling shareholder of Oi which may have a better crack at buying into TIM than TEF does.

*Since railroads count as services and not manufactures, Guangshen Railway got zapped after Chinese purchasing managers' lower order data was released. GSH is off 5.8% on the NYSE. However, Tencent Holdings is up marginally, for mysterious reasons, although on-line gaming and e-commerce is also a service. TCTZF or HK:0700. One reason for the disparity is that China funds lured in $1.5 bn in the last 10 days of December, and $2.4 bn in Q4 after outflows earlier in 2013. For the whole year, the net outflows hit $8.6 bn for China and Greater China (including Hong Kong, where both our shares are primarily traded.) This is from to EPFR, a tracking service. Once investors have been trained to sell on a price rise they do it automatically. However, tech is considered special even in China.

*Dr Reddy's will spend double-digit portions of its revenues on R&D going forward, vs the Indian pharmaceutical industry's average of 6-8% now according to CEO G.V. Prasad. RDY is an India-based generics firm with operations also in Germany and the US. Unlike some Indian rivals it has a good record for safety of production processes.

*Drug discovery firm Galapagos NV (GLPYY) which employs our former Milan-based biotech maven, attracted the purchase of a new 5.3% stake by the Dutch Van Herk Group of investment companies. Van Herk has euros 1.5 bn under management from Rotterdam's "Brainpark II" in Kralingen. Your editor wrote this note based on Van Herk information in Dutch and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed by this resident of Nieuw Amsterdam. She last spoke Dutch when living in Sterrebeek, Belgium, in 1966. Van Herk is looking for an "allround" asset manager according to its website. Galapagos is HQ'd in the Dutch-speaking Belgian city of Mechelin in Flanders so they can communicate with Van Herk. But it would help Belgium if they also provided information in the other national language, French, en als U blieft Engels.

*A Portuguese investing pro suggests that because it is growing faster than other Euro-banks, people should buy Banco Santander of Spain. Writing in seekingalpha.com, Nelson Alves is quoting his own book European Jewels.

*Mexico Equity and Income Fund (MXE) will pay us a huge capital gain (mostly short-term) of $2.12644 on Jan 28. However only about 20% will be paid in cash rather than shares. Moreover the user-unfriendly distribution counts for 2013 taxes.

 

None

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.