Of Fiscal Deficit, Factory Growth, And Top Cues In Focus Today

Share markets in India closed on a negative note yesterday. Selling pressure was seen as sentiments remained negative following losses in global equity markets after hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell that raised prospects of more interest rate hikes.

At the closing bell yesterday the BSE Sensex closed lower by 162 points and the NSE Nifty finished lower by 61 points. Losses were largely seen in FMCG stocks, bank stocks and metal stocks.

Among the most active stocks in the BSE Sensex yesterday were Hindustan Unilever (down 2%), ICICI bank (down 1.9%) and Sun Pharma (down 1.7%). Among the BSE 500 stocks, the most active stocks were Venky's (up 14%), Lakshmi Vilas Bank (down 6.1%) and Vakrangee (down 5%).

While this should do for the wrap on active stocks, we notice that many of you are tracking low priced shares as well. Low priced shares are not necessarily cheap or attractive. But then, there's a lot of interest in them.

Go ahead, check out the most actives here:

NSE Rs 10 to 20 most active stocks

BSE Rs 10 to 20 most active stocks

NSE above Rs 20 most active stocks

BSE above Rs 20 most active stocks

Top Stocks in Focus Today

From the real estate sector, DLF share price will be in focus today. The stock witnessed buying interest yesterday after the company's subsidiary DLF Home Developers Ltd placed a winning bid of Rs 14.96 billion for an 11.76-acre land parcel in Udyog Vihar, Gurugram, in an auction conducted by Haryana State Industrial and Infrastructure Development Corp.

Cipla share price will be in focus today. The stock of the company finished the day up by 1% on the BSE yesterday after the company entered into a distribution agreement with Roche Pharma India under which Cipla will promote and distribute tocilizumab (Actemra) and Syndyma, the 2nd brand of Roche's cancer therapy, bevacizumab (Avastin) in India.

Market participants will also be keeping tabs on public sector banks today. This comes as the government has ordered all state-run banks to examine non-performing loans of more than Rs 500 million for any wrongdoing similar to the Punjab National Bank (PNB) fraud. The banks have been given 15 days to also prepare a pre-emptive action plan to address such risks.

GST Collection Slips in January

As per a leading financial daily, total revenue collection under GST during January stood at Rs 863 billion. This compares against Rs 867 bn collected in December 2017.

As per the data, about 30% taxpayers registered with GST are still not filing their returns.

April-Jan Fiscal Deficit at 113.7% of Annual Target

India reported a fiscal deficit of 6.77 trillion rupees for April-January. This translates to 113.7% of the target originally set for the fiscal year that ends in March.

Net tax receipts in the first ten months of FY18 fiscal year were 9.7 trillion rupees, government data showed.

Note that Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in the Budget 2018-19 said the fiscal deficit target for the current year has been raised to 3.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) from 3.2% earlier. It also outlined the projected fiscal deficit target of 3.3% in FY19 in its budget.

Maintaining this deficit target in FY19 won't be easy. Fiscal deficit basically means the amount a government earns minus the amount it has to spend. The lesser the fiscal deficit, the better the government has performed.

In the past, the government has relied on reducing expenditure to keep the fiscal deficit in check. However, for the next year, the government is banking on earning much more than it has in the past. It expects a major portion of the revenue to be collected through GST tax collections.

The recent rise in crude oil prices has cast a doubt over how much the government will be to curb its spending. It also needs to revive the economy from the shock of Notebandi.

The dual pressure of increasing expenditure and lower inflows makes this FY19 deficit target an uphill challenge.

Factory Growth at Four-Month Low

Growth in factory activity slowed to a four-month low in February as new orders eased and weighed on output after manufacturers raised prices at the fastest pace in a year.

The Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by IHS Markit, fell to 52.1 in February from January's 52.4. It, however, was above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction for the seventh consecutive month.

The data suggests retail inflation could continue to pick up over coming months and would add further pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to raise interest rates.

Moody's Keeps GDP Growth Estimate Unchanged

Moody's Investors Service reported that the Indian economy is starting to recover from the negative impact of demonetisation and disruption caused by the GST roll-out.

It, however, kept its GDP growth estimates unchanged at 7.6% for 2018.

In its global growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019, Moody's said the Budget for fiscal year beginning April 1 (2018-19) includes some measures to stabilise the rural economy that was disproportionately hit by scrapping of high denomination Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes.

For the global growth, Moody's Investors Service revised its forecasts for 2018 and 2019, incorporating stronger than expected economic data and reflecting the likely pick-up tied to additional US fiscal stimulus.


 

Disclaimer: Equitymaster Agora Research Private Limited (hereinafter referred as 'Equitymaster') is an independent equity research Company. Equitymaster is not an Investment ...

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