No-Deal Brexit Odds Greater Than You May Think

May survived a vote of no confidence and the EU might extend Article 50, but only with conditions. Nothing's changed.

Today added no clarification to the Brexit process.

With the backing of DUP MPs, Theresa May Survived a Vote of No Confidence 325-306.

Most expected that result, as did I. However, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is free to repeat the maneuver down the road, and he is nearly certain to do so. Thus, today's vote changed nothing. If anything, the vote highlights the fragility of May's predicament.

If May agrees to do anything that DUP doesn't like, they will abandon her. At some point, a dozen or more Tories might decide the same thing for various reasons.

Corbyn Declines to Meet With May

Following the vote of no confidence, Theresa May declared a get together with all the parties to prepare a way forward. Corbyn rejected the invite unless May took hard Brexit off the table.

She couldn't do that even if she wanted to because enough Tories would then abandon her in the next motion of no confidence.

See where this is headed? Same impasse.

Brexit Delay

The Financial Times reports EU Indicates it Could Accept a Delay to Brexit - With Conditions.

Some interpret this as an indication there will be a delay forever until May gets her way.

There are numerous problems with the notion.

It requires unanimous consent from all EU member countries. France in particular is leery of allowing that. DUP is unlikely to allow that. A sufficient number of Tories might also get tired of the tactics.

Moreover, France wants a commitment that the UK honor the Irish backstop for the duration. The backstop is precisely the problem for DUP and many Tories.

Finally, there are European Parliament elections in May. Is the UK in or out? No one has worked out a solution yet. They will likely work out a fudge, but this is the least of the problems with perpetual delay.

Opposing Views, Same Place

  1. Jeremy Warner says the Brexit dream is over, or so say the markets, and they are probably right
  2. Tim Stanley says Why are Remainers so happy? Right now, Britain is on course for a no-deal Brexit

Both articles are from the Telegraph, and both were posted today. They both cannot be correct.

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