May Delays Brexit Vote In Move To Get EU To Tweak Deal: Yield Curve On Fire

Theresa May's Brexit deal was headed down in flames so bad that she postponed it. May obviously hopes for EU tweaks.

Theresa May delayed the Brexit vote today in a clear attempt to buy more time for her piss poor deal. The EU response, for now is the EU won't change the deal.

I suspect they will. Enough to matter? I don't know. The mess is quite complicated.

EU Throws May a Lifeline

Earlier this morning I noted EU Throws Theresa May a Poisoned Lifeline: Court Rules the UK Can Cancel Brexit!

That opened up a huge number of possibilities.

  1. If the margin of defeat is slim, May will request a few tweaks from the EU and put it to vote again. It would pass the second time.
  2. May could resign.
  3. May could threaten to resign in an attempt to force Tories to vote for the deal or risk losing an election to Labour.
  4. Tories could stage a leadership challenge vote of no confidence (Only Tories vote). May would be replaced by a Tory vote.
  5. Parliament could stage a vote of no confidence (All parliament votes). If May failed, there would be new elections.
  6. May could threaten another referendum. Depending on the precise wording of the referendum, the EU might agree to go along with it.
  7. May could ask the EU for more time to work out a better deal.
  8. May could decide to do what she said all along: No deal is better than a bad deal.
  9. May could decide to request extension after extension until it appears a vote will go the way she wants.
  10. May or a new government might ask for another referendum.

I commented that I do not know how to handicap this, and I rather doubt anyone else does either. I still don't, but I can say May has chosen option 7.

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