Markets Week Ahead: GBP/USD, Brexit, EUR/USD, ECB, Dow Jones, Vaccine Doses

Equities in the US, Europe and Asia Pacific region aimed mostly higher this past week as the world inched closer towards the first doses of a coronavirus vaccine. Still, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Investors welcomed progress from the US towards a $908b Covid relief package and an omnibus bill to avoid a government shutdown.

The haven-linked US Dollar largely underperformed, dipping to beyond 2-year lows alongside the anti-risk Japanese Yen. The Euro soared as the British Pound wobbled on ongoing Brexit headlines. Gold prices climbed as crude oil reaped the benefits of an OPEC+ agreement to begin tapering cuts starting in January by a smaller-than-anticipated amount.

The US and UK could begin distributing a vaccine, with the former looking to authorization from the FDA on Thursday. For the British Pound, Brexit talks could conclude this week after negotiations paused, opening the door to volatility if things take a turn for the worse. The Euro is eyeing the ECB rate decision where the central bank may increase bond-buying operations.

EUR/USD is also facing the deadline for an EU (US$)2.2 trillion stimulus deal. Sentiment/consumer confidence data will cross the wires from the Eurozone, Germany, Australia and the US in the week ahead. Rising Covid cases in the latter have been prompting local officials to tighten lockdowns in parts of the country. Might fading confidence derail risk appetite?

FUNDAMENTAL FORECASTS:

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Consolidation Due as ECB and EU Leaders Meet

After the recent strength of EUR/USD, a period of consolidation is likely ahead of two critical meetings: of the European Central Bank and the European Council.

Australian Dollar May Extend Gains Despite Escalating China Trade Tensions

The Australian Dollar may dismiss escalating trade tensions with China and continue moving higher as the easing of coronavirus restrictions accelerates the nation’s economic recovery.

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