Market Briefing For Friday, Sept. 13

Pomposity dominates - both the ECB's attitude at today's gathering; as well as our President's response, encouraging the Fed to replicate the excessive actions of Mr. Draghi's outgoing team. I have contended for some time that beyond a point stimulative policies are less helpful, of course, but also become counterproductive. Some of it contributed to the rationalized bearishness of hedge managers (who still proclaim a recession coming, rather than possibly being in the end-stages since I have felt the nuances coming since March of last year.. not this year), and they are not in the unenviable position of trying to recover not just a missed market (can happen to anyone); but to mis-analysis of overall economic conditions and prospects, especially if we get a trade deal 

  

Today I saw charted data supporting this point about monetary policy, as it shows how many citizens here in Germany actually recoiled at the implications of lower and then negative rates, by 'saving more', rather than spending more, as the ECB wished.The opposite of claims that things would have been worse if the insane NIRP policies ended.

  

One reason I'm appalled by the persistent overly-expansive policies is that the monetary authorities aren't truthful about how they impacted a sluggish economy. They claim it helped (Draghi today again refers to 'how bad it might be if they didn't'); whereas the opposite appears the valid case when you look at the increase in savings rates.  

  

In the USA, our rates aren't negative yet; but moving in that direction is a mistake; even though it's one broadly expected to occur at the upcoming Fed meeting. The FOMC claims they're not pushed by politics; so show it.

  

In-sum: the market flirts essentially at historic S&P highs. A Fed cut in the coming week will likely be accompanied by statements noting data is not so bad; and hinting at no more (they should skip this one).  

The White House says there is no deal with China (yet); but some sort of nascent detente is clear. And I think it relates to China's need for a lot of US pork, if our farmers can keep the African Swine Flu entirely out of our hogs (referring to actual pigs). Seriously this is a big deal as China is delving into emergency frozen supplies now; and they had to curtail imports from the Philippines as the Swine Flu is rampant there (and hence they really do need to patch things up with the US fast).

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