A barrage of data and two central bank meetings - including a likely cut from the Ukrainian central bank - make for an interesting week ahead in EMEA and Latam.

Hungary: Soft indicators to bounce back but expect NBH to remain on hold

We expect soft indicators in Hungary to rebound on the back of easing global tensions and sound local economic activity. Despite the recent uptick in inflation (which we see as a temporary phenomenon) and a decrease in the outstanding amount of FX swaps providing forint liquidity, the National Bank of Hungary will likely stay on hold. We don’t see enough evidence locally or globally for the inflation and economic outlooks to diverge from the central bank’s base-case scenario, so we think the NBH will remain in 'wait-and-see' mode with no change to the monetary policy setup. Meanwhile, we expect sound labor market data, with no sign of weakness in the pipeline.

EMEA and Latam Economic Calendar

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: ING, Bloomberg