BOJ Intervention Warning

Fears of BOJ intervention in the JPY FX rate have ratcheted higher today on the back of comments from Japanese Fin Min Masato Kanda.  Kanda said that movements in JPY are not in line with fundamentals and were instead driven by speculative action. Kanada went onto warn that further weakening could lead to authorities taking action and refused to rule out any options in helping stop the decline.

Rate-Hike Fails to Boost JPY

JPY has been heavily sold on the back of the BOJ’s record rate-increase this month. Despite hiking rates for the first time in 17 years, JPY was immediately weaker on the announcement with USDJPY now testing the 151.81 highs once again. Part of this was likely down to the expectation that the BOJ won’t be tightening rates in the manner that we saw post-pandemic from other G10 central banks. Indeed, in the BOJ minutes released overnight, it was seen that several members agreed that the bank shouldn’t follow the fast pace of tightening seen elsewhere from western countries.

USD & US Data

A stronger US Dollar on the back of the March FOMC has worked against JPY too. Despite the Fed reaffirming its projections of three rate cuts this year, USD has remained well bid. Looking ahead this week, the upcoming US PCE deflator on Friday is likely to add further support for USD, further stoking BOJ intervention risks if USDJPY breaks out higher.

Technical Views

USDJPY

For now, the market is stalled at the 151.81 level resistance which capped the rally last year also. With momentum studies bullish, however, focus is on an eventual break higher and a test of 155.19 next. Should we see any move south, 148.98 is the first support to watch. 

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