Intraday Market Analysis – USD Struggles For Bottom, Monday, Nov. 14


USDCHF probes August’s low

The US dollar sank as traders reassessed the Fed’s stance in light of cooling inflation. A sharp fall below the daily support at 0.9740 prompted more buyers to bail out. Then strong momentum below 0.9500 was a sign that the reversal has caught the bulls off-guard, causing a mass liquidation. August’s low of 0.9370 is the next support but buyers could be wary of catching a falling knife. A bearish breakout would pave the way for a slide towards 0.9300. The support-turned-resistance 0.9500 is the first hurdle when the dust settles.

EURGBP meets support

The pound found support from upbeat GDP in Q3. The pair has been looking to hold onto its recent gains above 0.8780, which is a prerequisite before a sustained recovery could materialize. The latest retracement came to a rest over the previous low at 0.8700, a sign of robust interest in keeping the single currency’s edge. A close above 0.8820 could attract momentum and trigger a runaway rally above 0.8900, confirming a bullish reversal in the process. On the downside, 0.8650 is a second line of defense in case of hesitation.

SPX 500 tests resistance

The S&P 500 flies high fueled by the Fed pivot optimism. The vertical rise above 3900 confirms the bullish MA cross on the daily chart, suggesting an acceleration to the upside. The index is testing the psychological level of 4000, which is also a former support from a mid-September sell-off. A breakout would put the September peak of 4150 within reach. The RSI shows an overextension and may prompt intraday buyers to take profit in the supply zone. The resistance-turn-support at 3900 would be the first level to monitor.

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