International finance directors from the world’s largest economies are weighing in on the virus and economic activity.

“The outbreak has posed severe challenges to China’s current foreign trade development,” Li Xingqian, the ministry’s foreign trade director said Friday.

“We expect January-February import and export growth to decline sharply,” Parts deficiencies from China are cascading through the global supply chain.

Analysts figure the supply and demand shocks from the crisis could cut China’s first-quarter GDP growth by up to half. Bank of Japan’s Haruhiko Kuroda told parliament “Huge uncertainty remains on how the spread of the new virus may affect the Japanese economy,” Kuroda. Japan’s production line activity contracted at the sharpest pace in seven years in February.

In Germany, the finance ministry said on Friday, their export-dependent economy stagnated in the fourth quarter as both industrial orders and output fell sharply in December, holding back overall growth in the wider Eurozone. China is Germany’s biggest trading partner, with manufacturers highly dependent on Chinese supply chains and Chinese demand for ‘Made in Germany’ goods.

The IMF told G20 leaders a further spread of the epidemic could derail a “highly fragile” projected global recovery. To understand further: Trade-Off: Financial system supply-chain cross contagion – a study in global systemic collapse.