Wednesday, June 2, 2021 3:57 AM EDT
10 months below target
Inflation picked up slightly to 1.7% YoY in Indonesia with core inflation also accelerating. May featured a holiday and commodity prices rose. Inflation quickened across nine of the eleven categories in the CPI basket, with core inflation settling at 1.4%. Despite the slight pickup in both core and headline inflation, prices pressures remain relatively subdued with inflation settling below target for a 10th straight month due to overall depressed domestic demand.
Source: t-bet
We do expect this trend to reverse in the near term, with base effects washing out and as commodity prices head north due to improving global economic conditions. Inflation will likely settle within the target band of 2-4% starting July although any upside price pressures will be capped by tepid domestic demand with the entire country placed under partial lockdown conditions (PPKM) for at least the first half of June.
Inflation remains below target for a 10th straight month
Badan Pusat Statistik
See you in 2022
Despite expectations for a pickup in prices, Bank Indonesia (BI) Governor Warjiyo remains confident that inflation will settle within target in 2021. With inflation expected to remain within target in the second half of 2021, we forecast a pause from the central bank for the balance of the year. However, Governor Warjiyo’s comments at the most recent policy meeting suggest that he is carefully monitoring price pressures although he also clarified that inflation pressures would only likely be of concern sometime in 2022. With price pressure expected to remain benign in 2021, any adjustments to the policy stance will likely be delayed to 2022 with a rate hike in 2021 only possible should IDR come under considerable pressure.
Disclaimer: This publication has been prepared by the Economic and Financial Analysis Division of ING Bank N.V. (“ING”) solely for information purposes without regard to any ...
more
Disclaimer: This publication has been prepared by the Economic and Financial Analysis Division of ING Bank N.V. (“ING”) solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. ING forms part of ING Group (being for this purpose ING Group NV and its subsidiary and affiliated companies). The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice.
The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved. ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam). In the United Kingdom this information is approved and/or communicated by ING Bank N.V., London Branch. ING Bank N.V., London Branch is deemed authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. The nature and extent of consumer protections may differ from those for firms based in the UK. Details of the Temporary Permissions Regime, which allows EEA-based firms to operate in the UK for a limited period while seeking full authorisation, are available on the Financial Conduct Authority’s website.. ING Bank N.V., London branch is registered in England (Registration number BR000341) at 8-10 Moorgate, London EC2 6DA. For US Investors: Any person wishing to discuss this report or effect transactions in any security discussed herein should contact ING Financial Markets LLC, which is a member of the NYSE, FINRA and SIPC and part of ING, and which has accepted responsibility for the distribution of this report in the United States under applicable requirements.
less
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.