India: Pivoting From The Pandemic To Economic Reforms

Each year, the Economic Division in India's Ministry of Finance publishes the Economic Survey of India (January 2021). The first volume is a set of chapters on different topics: the second volume is a point-by-point overview of the last year's developments, in fiscal, monetary, and trade policy, along with developments in main sectors like agriculture, industry, and services. Here, I'll cherry-pick some points that caught my eye in looking over the first volume.

Of course, any discussion of a country's economy 2020 will start with the pandemic. All statements about what "worked" or "didn't work" during 2020 are of course subject to revision as events evolve. As a country with many low-income people living in high-density cities, and high absolute numbers of elderly people, India was clearly a country with what looked as if it might experience large health costs in the pandemic. But the report argues that at least for 2020, India's COVID-19 response worked well. (For those not used to reading reports from India, "lakh" refers to 100,000, and a "crore" is 100 lakh, or 10 million.)

India was amongst the first of the countries that imposed a national lockdown when there were only 500 confirmed cases. The stringent lockdown in India from 25th March to 31st May was necessitated by the need to break the chain of the spread of the pandemic. This was based on the humane principle that while GDP growth will come back, human lives once lost cannot be brought back. 

The 40-day lockdown period was used to scale up the necessary medical and para-medical infrastructure for active surveillance, expanded testing, contact tracing, isolation and management of cases, and educating citizens about social distancing and masks, etc. The lockdown provided the necessary time to put in place the fundamentals of the '5 T' strategy - Test, Track, Trace, Treat, Technology. As the first step towards timely identification, prompt isolation & effective
treatment, higher testing was recognized as the effective strategy to limit the spread of infection. At the onset of the pandemic in January, 2020, India did less than 100 COVID-19 tests per day at only one lab. However, within a year, 10 lakh tests were being conducted per day at 2305 laboratories. The country reached a cumulative testing of more than 17 crore in January, 2021. ... 

The districts across India, based on number of cases and other parameters were classifie into red, yellow and green zones. Across the country, ‘hotspots’ and ‘containment zones’ were identified – places with higher confirmed cases increasing the prospect of contagion. This strategy was increasingly adopted for intensive interventions at the local level as the national lockdown was eased. ... 

India was successful in flattening the pandemic curve, pushing the peak to September. India managed to save millions of ‘lives’ and outperform pessimistic expectations in terms of cases and deaths. It is the only country other than Argentina that has not experienced a second wave. It has among the lowest fatality rates despite having the second largest number of confirmed cases. The recovery rate has been almost 96 per cent. India, therefore, seems to have managed the health aspect of COVID-19 well.

1 2 3 4
View single page >> |
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.


Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.