High Gas Prices = Inflation Nation. The Corn & Ethanol Report

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We started off the day with Redbook year-over-year data (May 21), S&P Global Composite Flash PMI (May) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May), and S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May) at 8:45 A.M. We then saw New Home Sales (April), New Home Sales month-over-month data (April), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments (May), and Richmond Fed Services Index (May) at 9:00 A.M. 

Moving on, we saw Fed Chair Powell's speech at 11:20 A.M., the 2-year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., and we are to see API Energy Stocks data at 3:30 P.M.

On the corn front, Russia declined the UN’s request to allow Ukraine exports, while US corn exports are down 17% from last year. However, US census exports are 266 million bushels higher than expected. This is coming in lower, as concerns about abundant supply whacked America’s biggest cash crop.

In the overnight electronic session, July corn has been recently trading at around 782 ¼, which is 4 cents lower. The trading range has been approximately 787 to 780.

On the ethanol front, with Memorial Day this weekend, ethanol blending has increased as we officially start the summertime driving season. The pain at the pump will have consumers begging for any help to bring down prices. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.

On the crude oil front, the WTI bears are in control as the EU’s ban on Russian oil has more holes in it than Swiss cheese, and it looks highly unlikely to work effectively as cargoes of Russian-flagged ships climb to a new high, funding the war with Ukraine.

While China is the single most important buyer in the global market, and with its battle against COVID-19 set to seriously damage both economic growth and oil demand for China, analysts were predicting a one million barrel per day reduction in oil demand for China, with no end in sight.

In the overnight electronic session, July crude has been recently trading at around 11031, which is 2 tics higher. The trading range has been approximately 11095 to 10861.

On the natural gas front, the Russian news took some premium off the market, but I expect it will return in the long-term. In the overnight electronic session, June natural gas has recently been trading at around 8.673, which is 0.073 lower. The trading range has been approximately 8.930 to 8.605.

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