Growth Rate Of The GDP Per Capita Revisited: BRICS

BRICS (Brasilia, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) was organized in 2006 by four economies from the top 10. South Africa joined in 2009. The idea behind the club was mutual assistance to provide the fastest economic growth.  In this post, we look into the real GDP per capita as the principal indicator of economic growth. In our previous post, we presented Brazil in the context of Latin America and reported mostly inertial (constant increment of $183 per year)  since 1960. No dramatic fall or surge over the studied period was observed, except for the drop of $1953 in 2016. Participation in BRICS did not give Brazil any significant economic push with the average annual increment of $210 since 2006 which is compatible with the long-term mean increment $183.  

In this section, we present the other 4 BRICS members. In Figure 1, the evolution of the annual GDPpc increment is presented as a function of time (the upper panel) and GDPpc (middle panel). The annual GDPpc increment between 1960 and 2018 is $330 (2011 prices). This value is lower than in developed countries (New Zealand has $349 for the same period). The period after 1999 was the most successful in Russian history since 1960 and the average annual growth was $806 between 1999 and 2018 and $648 between 2006 and 2018. This level is the same as observed in developed countries. The fall in 2015 and 2016 was just a short term and the Russian economy returned to a healthy growth rate (the lower panel of Figure 1). Two periods in Russian history since 1960 are related to the change in political and economic concept in 1991. This change, despite the deep fall in the mid-1990s, seems to be positive in the long run and we expect that the future development will follow the inertial growth scenario with constant annual increment in the range from $500 to $700. This is possible in cooperation with other BRICS countries also experiencing extremely fast growth in the annual increment of GDPpc since the 1990s. 

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