Germany: Last Test Before The September Election

In short, the fact that at the third state election this year, the third incumbent minister-president won the election suggests that there is very little wind of change in German politics. The re-emergence of the CDU and some weakening of the Greens could give credence to this theory. There is still a long way to go until the elections in September. With the ongoing vaccination roll-out and continued government support schemes, the pandemic and its economic impact could become less important as the one and only topic deciding the election in September. In our view, a coalition of the CDU and the Greens is currently still the most likely outcome of the September election. However, as seen in recent weeks, the mood in German politics can shift easier and faster than in the past (EWG).

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