German GfK Consumer Climate & Inflation Potential

Finally, the uneven distribution of the vaccine means that logistics and supply issues are likely to remain for at least several months.

Even if countries more advanced in their vaccination programs return economic activity to normal, they might see prices rise. This is because supply from countries still shut down due to lack of vaccinations might have more difficulties.

Motors manufactured in Germany might get exported to the US, for example. But there won’t be a return journey for the ship carrying jet engines if air travel is still on lockdown.

This increases the transportation costs since the transportation company can’t offset the cost of the return journey.

What we are looking for

Meanwhile, expectations for the consumer situation in Germany remain subdued. German consumer demand has not returned to positive since the start of the pandemic.

The consensus of expectations for tomorrow’s GfK survey is for -11.9 in comparison to -12.9 prior. A modest improvement, but still comparable to last May’s result.

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