GBP/USD Technical Outlook: Sterling Threatens Larger Price Reversal

The British Pound posted an outside-day reversal off slope support last week, shifting our near-term focus higher in price. The recovery has now pulled back from the monthly open and IF prices are indeed heading higher, this decline may offer near-term entries on the long-side. These are the updated intraday targets & invalidations levels that matter for GBP/USD.


GBP/USD Daily Price Chart

Technical Outlook: In last week’s Technical Perspective on the British Pound, we highlighted a confluence support zone in GBP/USD around ~1.3164, “This region is defined by the 50% retracement of the post-Brexit advance and converges on the lower median-line parallel & basic trendline support extending off the 2017 lows.” We noted that IF prices were going to recover- this would be a “good spot” with daily RSI divergence further highlighting the risk for a near-term recovery.

Sterling rallied more than 1.6% off the lows last week before pulling back from monthly open resistance at 1.3290. A rally surpassing the 61.8% retracement of the monthly range at 1.3330 would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and validate a breakout with such a scenario targeting confluence resistance into the 1.35-handle. A downside break of this range keeps the broader short-bias in play targeting the lower parallel / October low at 1.3027.


GBP/USD 240min Price Chart


Notes: A closer look at Sterling price action highlights last week’s reversal off descending pitchfork support with price closing just below the monthly open at 1.3290- note that this level also represents the objective weekly opening-range high. A breach above this threshold keeps the focus higher targeting subsequent resistance objectives at 1.3330, the trendline confluence around 1.3360 and the 76.4% retracement at 1.3384. Interim support rests at 1.3203/08 with our near-term bullish invalidation level steady at 1.3164.

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