GBP/USD Forecast November 26 - 30 – Brexit Deal Crunch Time

  1. EU Summit on Brexit: Sunday-Monday. The UK and the EU reached a detailed agreement on the UK’s divorce from the EU. This will likely be signed off by all countries. Uncertainty remains about the political declaration about the future relationship. The sides will be negotiating various topics such as the status of Gibraltar which has infuriated Spain. UK PM Theresa May will try to achieve some small wins in the event in order to muster more support for the deal when it goes to parliament early in December. Headlines from the EU Summit will set the tone for the opening of the new week, mostly moving the Pound but also the Euro and other currencies. Reactions from Brexiteers in Britain also matter quite a bit.
  2. High Street Lending: Monday, 8:30. The figure represents around 60% of all UK mortgages and is released before the official numbers are. Back in September, mortgage approvals slipped to 38.5K, slightly below expectations. A similar number is likely now: 38.9K.
  3. CBI Realized Sales: Tuesday, 11:00. The Confederation of British Industry’s gauge of sales dropped sharply in October to 5 points, down from 23 beforehand. However, it remains positive, indicating a higher sales volume. A rise to 10 points is expected.
  4. BRC Shop Price Index: Wednesday, 00:01. The British Retail Consortium’s inflation gauge showed an annual drop of 0.2% in prices in its stores in September. The data for October is due now.
  5. BOE Financial Stability Report: Wednesday. The Bank of England publishes its thorough report on financial stability twice a year. Apart from the details on banks, the BOE also makes available some economic assessments which are relevant to monetary policy.
  6. Net Lending to Individuals: Thursday, 9:30. Growth in net lending implies enhanced economic activity. The figure stood at 4.7 billion in September, better than had been expected. The data for October is released now and may show a squeeze: Expectations stand at 4.5 billion.
  7. M4 Money Supply: Thursday, 9:30. The amount of money in circulation disappointed in the past two months, squeezing by 0.3% in September. The downgrade implies falling economic activity. October may see a rise. An increase of 0.3% is on the cards.
  8. Mortgage Approvals: Thursday, 9:30. The BOE\s comprehensive report on lending was quite stable in recent months, standing at 65K in September. It is published after the High Street Lending number, reducing its shine. The same figure of 65K is projected.
  9. GfK Consumer Confidence: Friday, 00:01. This survey of around 2,000 consumers fell to the bottom of the range in October: -10 points, indicating pessimism among shoppers. A score of -11 is projected.
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