GBP/USD Forecast Dec. 31 - Jan. 4, 2019 – Pound Posts Slight Gains During Christmas Week

GBP/USD had a quiet Christmas week, closing the week almost unchanged. The upcoming week will be busy, highlighted by British PMIs for manufacturing, construction and services. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

The pound sustained slight losses in December, as the U.S. dollar was broadly lower against its major rivals. The Christmas holiday allowed investors to forget about Brexit for a bit, but the chaos over Britain’s departure from the EU in less than 100 days could send the currency sharply lower in the coming weeks.

GBP/USD daily graph with resistance and support lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. British Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 9:30. Manufacturing growth was stronger than expected in November, with a reading of 53.1. The December forecast stands at 52.6.
  2. Construction PMI: Thursday, 9:30. The indicator has moved higher for two straight months, but the markets are braced for a slowdown in December, with an estimate of 52.9.
  3. BRC Retail Shop Price Index: Thursday, 00:01. This event is a useful gauge of consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth. The indicator posted a weak gain of 0.1% in November. Will we see another positive reading to end off the year?
  4. Net Lending to Individuals: Friday, 9:30. Borrowing levels are closely correlated to consumer spending and confidence. The indicator has risen in the past two months and the upward trend is expected to continue in December, with an estimate of GBP 5.1 billion.
  5. Services PMI: Friday, 9:30. The indicator fell to 50.4 in November, pointing to stagnation in the services sector. Another weak reading is expected in December, with a forecast of 50.8.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical analysis

The pound posted considerable gains at the start of the week but was unable to consolidate. With GBP/USD showing little movement last week, our technical analysis remains largely unchanged.

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