• GBP/USD has been retreating from the highs as Brexit talks remain stuck.
• The greenback remains under pressure amid transition and vaccine optimism.
• Black Friday’s four-hour chart is showing that cable is at risk of falling off the ascending triangle.

Is it just darkest before a Brexit dawn or are talks about to fall apart? The Chief EU Negotiator is traveling to London for in-person talks after completing his quarantine, yet that is the only bit of positive news coming from the negotiations.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that the likelihood of a deal depends on the EU and that Britain would prosper with or without an agreement. His comments follow similar finger-pointing by an unnamed EU official who said that there are disagreements on the known topics of fisheries, governance, and setting a level-playing field.

Similar to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Barnier was quoted as saying he does not know if a deal is possible. GBP/USD has reacted to the news with a fall, yet there while both sides continue talking, there is hope.

Everything else favors gains for cable. With the upcoming expiry of the nationwide lockdown, London will return to Tier 2 rather than struggle under more severe Tier 3 terms. UK coronavirus cases continue their downtrend.

While COVID-19 statistics are moving in the wrong direction – a new record of over 90,000 hospitalizations was recorded on Thanksgiving – investors cheer an upbeat political development. President Donald Trump said he would leave the White House if the Electoral College votes in favor of President-elect Joe Biden. The safe-haven dollar is under pressure amid greater political certainty.

Markets also remain hopeful about a vaccine, despite some confusion from the recent data released by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford. The better efficacy rate of 90% was seen only in a smaller group of people aged 55 or younger. Nevertheless, the British regulators are set to approve the immunization, pending more data.