• The first thing that I would notice is that the market has broken above an inverted hammer from the previous session, which is quite often a very bullish sign.
• In general, this is a market that tends to be very volatile under the best of circumstances, and with the recent nonsense coming out of Japan, that is even more so reality at this point.

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Overnight, officials from the Bank of Japan suggested that they were not going to raise interest rates anytime soon as the markets had gotten far too volatile. That makes a certain amount of sense, considering that the Nikkei 225 at one point had lost 20% in just 3 trading sessions. Because of this, Japan has found itself in serious trouble, and as a result it makes sense that we would see the Bank of Japan turned back around. All things being equal, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of dangers moves in both directions, but at this point in time I think it’s going to be difficult to get into a huge position in any currency pair, let alone one that is as volatile as this one.

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Carry Trade

This has been all about the carry trade recently, and therefore it’s likely that the narrative starts to shift back toward whether or not the carry trade is going to continue. Quite frankly, this is a market that has been absolutely decimated, so a bounce does make a certain amount of sense, but whether or not it can actually hold its own remains to be seen. The ¥190 level above of course is an area that is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and that is something that is worth paying attention to.

The size of the candlestick for the session on Wednesday certainly shows that there are a lot of people jumping into the market, so it’s possible that we could see a little bit of follow through, but I will be paying close attention to the ¥190 level for a sign that momentum could be picking up.

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