Forex Today: Markets Await FOMC Release

  • U.S. non-tech stock market indices briefly traded at new all-time highs yesterday before weakening slightly. Stock markets are doing little as markets await the FOMC release.

Model Figure Standing on Map

  • In the Forex market, the U.S. dollar is slightly stronger over the past day against almost every major currency. The USD/JPY bullish breakout has weakened but remains valid, so higher prices are likely to be seen in this major currency pair over the rest of this week (FXY, UUP).
  • Bitcoin has continued to consolidate above key support levels which begin at $52,664. The Indian government is reportedly considering introducing a law which would effect a total ban on ownership of or dealing in cryptocurrency.
  • U.S. retail sales data released yesterday showed a stronger decline than had been expected, down 3% for February against the 0.5% decline which had been forecast.
  • Today will see the release of the U.S. FOMC rate, statement, and economic projections – this event is typically the most impactful on the Forex market in the monthly calendar, so volatility is likely to rise strongly following the release. We will also get Canadian CPI data, New Zealand GDP data, and Australian employment numbers later today, so the Forex market will probably be active.
  • Global coronavirus deaths have fallen sharply over the past five weeks to reach a level 40% lower than the peak. However, new confirmed cases rose again last week for the third week in a row.
  • Total confirmed new coronavirus cases worldwide stand at over 121.2 million with an average case fatality rate of 2.17%.
  • Brazil is suffering from a strong wave of infections, and is currently accounting for almost one fifth of the entire known global coronavirus daily death toll. Its health service is severely strained and the government intends to appoint the fourth new heath minister since the pandemic began.
  • Coronavirus is spreading again in Europe leading to new lockdown measures being imposed in a few countries, notably Italy.
  • The fastest progression in terms of immunizing a population against the coronavirus in all but the smallest states has been in Israel, which has already administered a first shot of the Pfizer (PFE) vaccine to 55% of its entire population and a second dose to 47% (which includes more than 90% of over-50s who have either received a shot or recovered from coronavirus). The U.A.E. ranks second, with 67 shots given per 100 people. For most of the world, a vaccine remains distant. Progress remains slow in the hard-hit European Union with not a single member state having yet fully vaccinated even 5% of its population.
  • The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to now be increasing most quickly in Andorra, Armenia, Austria, Bangladesh, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Canada, Chile, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Ethiopia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Honduras, Hungary, India, Iraq, Italy, Jordan, Kenya, South Korea, Lebanon, Mali, Malta, Moldova, Mongolia, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Philippines, Poland, Romania, and Serbia.

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