Forex Forecast: Pairs In Focus - Sunday, Sept. 15

The difference between success and failure in Forex trading is very likely to depend upon which currency pairs you choose to trade each week, and not on the exact trading methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits. Each week I am going to analyze fundamentals, sentiment and technical positions in order to determine which currency pairs are most likely to produce the easiest and most profitable trading opportunities over the next week. In some cases, it will be trading the trend. In other cases, it will be trading support and resistance levels during more ranging markets.

Big Picture September 15

In my previous piece last week, I forecast the best trade would be short of EUR/USD following a daily close below 1.1000. There was no such daily close during the week, which was just as well because EUR/USD rose over the week by 0.43%.

Last week’s Forex market saw the strongest rise in the relative value of the British Pound, and the strongest fall in the relative value of the Japanese Yen.

Last week’s market was dominated by U.S. Dollar and Japanese Yen weakness and some deep retracements or reversals in trending markets, leading to a confusing picture in the Forex market. The only constant is the depreciation in safe-haven assets such as precious metals, the Japanese Yen, and the Swiss Franc.

The truly notable market movement over the past week was the strong rise in the British Pound. This has been driven by recent British data showing a stronger economy but even more so by the increasing probability that a “no deal” Brexit will not happen at the end of October.

The Forex market is seeing only one long-term trend persisting right now, weakness in the Euro, but it is subject to deep pullbacks and it rose over the week despite the ECB’s reinstatement of an unlimited quantitative easing program.

There is a great deal of high impact news releases due compared to last week, with guidance due from the central banks of the U.S., Japan, the U.K. and Australia.

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