Forex Forecast: Pairs In Focus - Sunday, March 17

The difference between success and failure in Forex trading is very likely to depend upon which currency pairs you choose to trade each week, and not on the exact trading methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits. Each week I am going to analyze fundamentals, sentiment and technical positions in order to determine which currency pairs are most likely to produce the easiest and most profitable trading opportunities over the next week. In some cases it will be trading the trend. In other cases it will be trading support and resistance levels during more ranging markets.

Big Picture March 17

In my previous piece last week, I was bearish on the EUR/USD currency pair and bullish on the USD/SEK currency pair provided their respective low/high from the previous weak was breached. There were no such price breakouts in either pair.

Last week’s Forex market saw the strongest rise in the relative value of the British Pound, and the strongest fall in the relative value of the Japanese Yen.

Last week’s market has changed again – stocks and commodity currencies recovered as the market reverted to a more “risk-on” mode. Forex price movements were dominated by the British Pound, which is no great surprise. The British Parliament voted to rule out a “no deal” Brexit for good and to request a postponement of the Brexit date beyond March 29. Parliament will be voting again a third time on accepting the draft deal later this week and that result is likely to again provide strong volatility in the British Pound. If somehow the deal is passed then we can expect the British Pound to rise sharply, although it seems to be an unlikely outcome. However, if the deal fails, the British Government may feel justified in requesting a very long Brexit postponement, which would be likely to lead to Brexit never happening at all – and this scenario would also see the Pound rise. The biggest danger to the Pound this week would be the E.U. refuses to agree an extension of the Brexit date, which would leave the British Government with a choice between accepting “no deal” on 29th March or to simple revoke Article 50 which would mean the U.K. could not leave the E.U. again for at least another two years.

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