Forex Forecast: Pairs In Focus - Sunday, March 10

The difference between success and failure in Forex trading is very likely to depend upon which currency pairs you choose to trade each week, and not on the exact trading methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits. Each week I am going to analyze fundamentals, sentiment and technical positions in order to determine which currency pairs are most likely to produce the easiest and most profitable trading opportunities over the next week. In some cases it will be trading the trend. In other cases it will be trading support and resistance levels during more ranging markets.

Big Picture March 10

In my previous piece last week, I was bullish on the GBP/JPY currency cross. Unfortunately, it closed the week down strongly, by 2.08%.

Last week’s Forex market saw the strongest rise in the relative value of the Japanese Yen, and the strongest fall in the relative value of the Canadian Dollar.

Last week’s market was more active and saw the start of something a new – a sell-off and weakening in stocks and most commodities and commodity currencies, which has benefited safety assets such as the Japanese Yen. While the Australian and Canadian Dollars are weak, European currencies are also falling, with the Swedish Krona making new all-time low prices against the U.S. Dollar. So, markets are certainly more “risk-off” at present than they were during the previous week.

This week ahead is likely to be dominated by the British Parliamentary vote on whether to accept the draft Brexit deal. If somehow the deal is passed then we can expect the British Pound to rise sharply, although it seems to be an unlikely outcome. If Parliament votes against then either a last-minute deal will be cobbled together before March 29 or the departure date will be postponed. A “no deal” Brexit remains highly unlikely despite the headlines.

In addition to the Brexit vote, this week will probably be dominated by the monthly central bank input from the Bank of Japan, U.S. inflation and retail sales data, and British GDP and Budgetary releases.

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