Forex Forecast: Pairs In Focus - Sunday, Jan. 27

The difference between success and failure in Forex trading is very likely to depend upon which currency pairs you choose to trade each week, and not on the exact trading methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits. Each week I am going to analyze fundamentals, sentiment and technical positions in order to determine which currency pairs are most likely to produce the easiest and most profitable trading opportunities over the next week. In some cases it will be trading the trend. In other cases it will be trading support and resistance levels during more ranging markets.

Big Picture January 27 

In my previous piece last week, I thought it would be unwise to take any trades as markets generally looked very uncertain.

Last week saw the strongest rise in the relative value of the British Pound, and the strongest fall in the relative value of the U.S. Dollar.

Last week’s Forex market was quite active, dominated by a strong bullish trend in the British Pound, and strong bullishness at the end of the week in precious metals and, to a lesser extent, the New Zealand Dollar. The British Pound is probably strengthening due to an increasing expectation that a “No Deal” Brexit will be avoided as E.U. members begin to focus on the economic damage such an outcome will cause them.

This week is likely to be dominated by the U.S. Dollar as we have a release of the FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate plus Non-Farm Payrolls data.

Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment

Fundamental analysis remains unclear on the U.S. Dollar. The stock market has continued to recover from its lows but remains a bear market technically. There are major fears over the seeming high sensitivity of the economy to any further rate hikes, as evidenced by the fact that the FOMC appears to have given up on its originally planned further rate hikes for 2019. The ongoing trade dispute with China appears to be moving towards a positive resolution, which is a good sign. A temporary resolution of the U.S. Government shutdown which will reopen the government until February 15 has been agreed which may be helping the U.S. stock market continue its recovery this month.

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