Forex Forecast: Pairs In Focus - Sunday, April 25

Last week was dominated by monthly policy releases from the European Central Bank, which contained no surprises and had little effect on the euro, and the Bank of Canada, whose release was more consequential as it moved forward the anticipated timetable for the commencement of rate hikes.

The main events this coming week will be the Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement from the U.S. Federal Reserve, plus U.S. Advance GDP data and the Bank of Japan’s Outlook Report. Typically, FOMC releases are the major driver of Forex market volatility, so we can expect an active Forex market during the second half of this week.

Last week saw the global number of confirmed new coronavirus cases rise for the eighth consecutive week to new record highs, after falling for over two months, driven mainly by a resurgence of the virus in Asia (especially India). The total number of global deaths also rose again last week for the fifth week running. There is considerable informed speculation that the death tally in India is considerably higher than the official total running at approximately 2,600 daily, while at present there are about one million new confirmed cases every three days.

Many countries have begun vaccination programs. Excepting extremely small nations, the fastest progress towards herd immunity has taken place in Israel, the U.K. and the U.A.E., with studies claiming that Israel and the U.K. have reached de facto “herd immunity”. Immunization is proceeding quickly in the U.S. and the European Union has finally begun to quicken the pace of its program sufficiently to begin to make a difference.

The strongest growth in new confirmed coronavirus cases is happening in Argentina, the Bahamas, Bolivia, Cambodia, Colombia, Croatia, Cuba, Cyprus, Egypt, Georgia, India, Iran, Iraq, Japan, Kazakhstan, South Korea, Malaysia, Nepal, Netherlands, Paraguay, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Trinidad, Tunisia, Turkey, Venezuela, and Uzbekistan.

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